Pat McAfee needs to produce better ratings to be worth $85 million — and headaches — for ESPN

It’s always about the numbers, not the words.

That’s how big-time sports TV talent is judged — and it will be no different with Pat McAfee. 

Upon hiring McAfee in the fall, ESPN knew he would be a headache. They even agreed to it, allowing him to swear on its air, wear a tank top and keep ownership of his show. ESPN executives correctly believed that if you are hiring McAfee, you can’t neuter him. 

McAfee has appeal as a WWE-style talk show host that brings energy. ESPN wants its audience to become younger and, in theory, McAfee should bring that. But the 36-year-old former Pro Bowl punter does what he wants. 

This week, McAfee’s paid show contributor Aaron Rodgers defamed ABC’s star late night host, Jimmy Kimmel, by falsely suggesting that Kimmel would be on the Jeffrey Epstein list. The implication of pedophilia resulted in Kimmel blasting Rodgers on social media and threatening to take him to court. 

Which brings us to the numbers.

Since the inception of McAfee’s show on ESPN in the fall, Stephen A. Smith and “First Take” are handing McAfee a 583,000 viewer lead-in and McAfee is only maintaining 302,000, which is a 48 percent drop. 

As compared to the same window last year, which featured “SportsCenter,” McAfee is down 12 percent. On FS1, Colin Cowherd’s show has nearly beaten McAfee on some days and saw 19 percent growth from last year to average 156,000 viewers.

Now, ESPN counters these numbers by noting McAfee’s direct-to-consumer and social following. It is a point to be taken in our new media world. 

The show averages 403,000 viewers on YouTube, according to ESPN. 

As we previously reported, ESPN is paying McAfee in excess of $85 million over five years to license his show and appear on “College GameDay,” while Rodgers is paid more than $1 million a year to be a weekly guest on the program. ESPN believes the McAfee deal will be profitable for them.

The question is if McAfee can last in the Disney universe. McAfee never finishes contracts. He failed to with FanDuel, DAZN, BetOnline, SiriusXM and WWE, to name a few. So on McAfee lasting the full five years on the ESPN contract, put us down for the under.

He is not a corporate guy and the deal is structured so Disney can try to distance itself from what is on its air. But it is on its air. 

This was Disney on Disney crime, against someone who does produce in Kimmel.

It is very difficult for anyone to be too edgy under the Mickey Mouse umbrella. The media world that McAfee, who started at Barstool Sports, grew up in doesn’t really have many, if any, rules. This leads to Rodgers’ weekly spot, which is basically a combination of news about if he will play, some guy talk and conspiracy theories.

Rodgers clearly doesn’t like rules. He spouts his hypotheses about vaccines and pedophilia lists without any known expertise. He’s entitled to his opinion, but the only reason people listen is because of his numbers: He is a four-time MVP with the fifth-most passing touchdowns ever and one Super Bowl ring.

In the end, the numbers decide if the headaches are worth it. McAfee usually walks before the end of his deals. If that happens, ESPN will only have regret if McAfee is really producing.