Black Friday predictions and trends for 2022, per retail experts

Though it’s still October, we’re mesmerized by how people are already talking about Black Friday.

With the advent of online shopping (hallelujah for that, let’s just start there), many retailers are beginning their Black Friday 2022 promotions early — and we’re just getting started.

Namely, Amazon recently hosted its October Prime Day, the first time it ever hosted a major two-day shopping event twice in a given year. Not only that, but Target recently launched its official Black Friday 2022 Sale that you can start shopping for now.

So, to better understand the shopping landscape — from planning your holiday shopping list during inflation to understanding what truly constitutes a good deal — we consulted two retail experts to give us the 411 on all things Black Friday 2022. They shared their predictions, highlighted some of the top trends we’ll be seeing and more.

“According to Rakuten data, between Black Friday 2021 and Cyber Monday 2021, consumers spent the most money on purchases in the electronics category (average order value = ~$429), followed by home and gardening (average order value = ~$209), jewelry and accessories (average order value = ~$160), sports and outdoors (average order value = ~$155), department stores (average order value = ~$121) followed by apparel (average order value = ~$107) and shoes (average order value = ~$106),” Kristen Gall, retail and shopping expert at Rakuten, told the New York Post.

Top Black Friday 2022 Predictions, Per Retail Experts

According to our retail experts, here are top-level Black Friday 2022 predictions for this year’s shopping season:

Black Friday 2022 will begin early: Retailers will begin having Black Friday sales earlier than ever this year, some right after Halloween.
Retailers will have excess inventory: The retail industry has much excess inventory — as seen throughout this year — so expect to see Black Friday-level savings in addition to ‘official’ promotions.
Black Friday 2022 will blow up online: Black Friday isn’t just for in-person shopping. Since the pandemic, more retailers have been closing on Thanksgiving Day and replacing their promotions with an online-only approach.
Toys will sell out quickly this year: Popular toys will sell out fast, and our retail experts recommend buying them before Black Friday. For ideas, check out our guides to the hottest toys this year and best toys for one-year-olds.
Shoppers are looking for quality over quantity: Though you can anticipate plenty of sales during Black Friday, customers will be purchasing the items they know will be worth their while.

When is Black Friday 2022?

Though Black Friday 2022 officially takes place on Friday, Nov. 25 (the day after Thanksgiving), it has technically already started for some retailers.

“Due to the consumer uncertainty of the economy, retailers will start their promotions earlier this year,” Spencer Kieboom, CEO and founder of Pollen Returns, told The Post.

What’s more, huge retailers such as Target, Best Buy, Kohls, and Walmart have already gotten a jump start on the holiday shopping season by offering huge discounts early on products across all categories.

Will consumers start their Black Friday shopping earlier this year?

“Shoppers worried about inflation and a potential recession aren’t waiting until Black Friday, but instead are looking to early fall sales and discounts to beat expected price hikes,” Gall notes.

While there’s an overall ‘shopping early’ trend, there’s also added pressure among retailers to drive sales.

“Consumers will lean toward hesitancy because of the looming recession uncertainty, leaving retailers with a lot of work to drive traffic and convert purchases now,” Kieboom says.

Given inflation, how will shopping look differently this year?

Aside from getting ahead of late November shopping, “expect retailers to mitigate any kind of hurdle to purchasing and offer installment payment options,” Kieboom notes.

For many retailers and direct-to-consumer sites, be mindful of their payment plans before heading to checkout.

For shopping options, check out our guides to the best toys under $25 and the best affordable gifts under $100.

What are the best Black Friday deals of 2022?

The golden question, right?

For Black Friday 2022, people will be going for the bigger ticket items such as technology products including laptops, TVs and Dysons, according to Gall. “I also anticipate consumers to indulge in beauty products this year, specifically those that are trending on TikTok and other social media platforms, Dyson included.”

According to Kieboom, sales on essential items are expected to be higher, too, including blenders, Amazon buys under $50 and snow blowers.

What will retailers promote the most during Black Friday 2022?

Excess inventory aside, our retail experts believe retailers have a unique agenda to help generate sales and appeal to the average consumer simultaneously.

“Because of [excess inventory], I anticipate retailers promoting products that they have an excess of, such as home goods and furniture,” Gall notes.

Additionally, Kieboom believes an emphasis on ‘fast and free shipping’ is up there on the priority list, “due to strategy surrounding hyper-fast delivery over the last couple of years,” he explains.

Black Friday 2022 Predictions on Top Retailers, Per Shopping Experts

Ahead, both Gall and Kieboom outline some of the top retailers and what to expect from them as we approach Black Friday 2022. Though some don’t have their official promotions live, this is what our experts forecast:

Amazon: Amazon will be focusing on curbside pickup and in-store returns (if a shopper would like to swap out their purchase once received). According to Kieboom, retailers are 400% more likely to convert returns into a new buy, in comparison to non-replenished good stores.
Kohl’s: Kohl’s has already shared their upcoming holiday deals, which kicked off in early October. From Oct. 6 through Christmas Eve, shoppers will find items on sale or an offer at Kohl’s every single day. The retailer will also be offering a seven-day Black Friday Early Access event and of course be offering more Kohl’s Cash than ever before.
Macy’s: Macy’s held their own early holiday sale in October and shoppers can expect incredible savings for Black Friday & Cyber Monday — from KitchenAid appliances and cookware to bedding and bath essentials, to furniture.
Target: Shoppers can anticipate daily deals featured across all categories including home decor and furniture, electronics, groceries, beauty, fashion, children’s toys, sporting goods and more. Target’s Black Friday 2022 event is already live.
Walmart: Walmart is currently hosting a large fall sale that is continuing into the holiday season. At Walmart, you can find major discounts on items across a wide variety of categories, however, the biggest deals are in tech and home goods.