Elton John’s embarrassing $25M Broadway flop was predictable — the Rocket Man keeps crashing

In 2000, the $15 million Disney musical “Aida” got a zero’s welcome to Broadway. 

The show starring Heather Headley and Sherie Rene Scott was slammed by theater critics (“a pompous bore,” said The Post’s Clive Barnes) and didn’t manage a coveted Tony Award nomination for Best Musical.

But, as male lead Radames sings, fortune favors the brave. “Aida” stuck it out, sold plenty of tickets, and ran for four years at the Palace Theatre thanks to two words prominently emblazoned on the marquee: Elton John.

Almost a quarter century later, and that world-famous name has all but become a liability. 

On Tuesday, the “Crocodile Rock” singer’s $25 million “Tammy Faye,” a migraine about mascara set to music, posted its closing notice only five days after opening night. The show — which had been well received in the UK, except by me — takes its final bow on Dec. 8.

“Tammy Faye” will likely go down as the season’s biggest flop.

Said a wag: “The shocker is that it’s gonna chance another three weeks!”

What a stunning downturn for the composer of the ongoing smash “The Lion King” and the Tony-winning hit “Billy Elliot: The Musical.”

At the same time, nobody around Broadway is all that surprised. 

The Rocket Man keeps crashing down, over and over again. 

Since “Billy” premiered in London’s West End in 2005, John, 77, has delivered dud after dud. 

First, there was the $12 million vampire debacle “Lestat,” based on Anne Rice’s novels, in 2006. 

Musicals about the undead never work. Just ask “Dance of the Vampires Star” Michael Crawford. 

“Lestat”’s best song, believe it or not, was when little Claudia sang “I Want More” about her new appetite for blood. The mega-flop closed after 39 performances. (Ten more than “Tammy,” for those keeping score at home.)

And then in 2022, his “Devil Wears Prada” face-planted on the runway during its Chicago tryout. New York critics descended on the Windy City like Fashion Week. I called the wreckage “a haute mess” and the Times said, “Nothing fits.” 

The flustered show shoved its couture into a carry-on and scurried off to the relative safety of London where it’s been revamped by “Kinky Boots” director Jerry Mitchell, a new hire. 

At a media event for “Tammy Faye” in March at Hudson Yards, John told me he wholeheartedly agreed with my one-star review of “Prada.”

Come to think of it, at that “Tammy Faye” presser, he had very little to say about, um, “Tammy Faye.” That should’ve been a red flag.

John has a well-known habit of handing off his scores, and then not being too involved in the demanding production process due to his touring schedule. He also lives in London with his husband (and “Tammy” producer) David Furnish and their two children.

Standing at arm’s — or red devil wing’s — length is nothing new for Elton. He only watched “Aida” a handful of times before it opened (and notoriously stormed out of one preview), and he first saw “The Lion King” on opening night. John took in “Prada” on Aug. 3. Critics took it out on Aug. 7.

“What is the job of an author on an evolving work of art? To work, to shape, to cut, to polish,” said one industry source. “He has no care, no involvement.”

Added another: “Sir Elton is not a musical theater writer.”

Like his shows or not, John has three hits to prove he, at least, was a musical theater writer. The trouble is that the most recent one closed here 12 years ago.

Back in March, John told me he had written several new songs for “Prada 2.0” in London, knew where the problems were, and insisted it was being retooled from top to bottom.

It opens on Dec. 5. And I’ll be there at the Dominion Theatre in three weeks to catch the new version with star Vanessa Williams as Runway editor Miranda Priestly. 

But here’s a sneak preview. An unimpressed Broadway source who’s already been told me “The ‘Devil’ wears nada!”