Two risky $30 million musicals are battling on Broadway — ‘Dolly’ and ‘Paddington’

The Broadway season doesn’t kick off for a few more weeks, when the horror play “Paranormal Activity” starts previews at the August Wilson Theatre.

To call the state of new musicals these days alarming would be an understatement. But we already have a hot early race. Or, well, hot-ish.

Of the four new musicals that are currently on sale — “Galileo,” “Wanted,” “Paddington” and “Dolly: A True Original Musical” — there are two obvious pack leaders: The all-American Dolly Parton show and the polite British bear adventure from darkest England.

What’s surprising about that top pair is who’s said to be ahead.

That would be “Dolly,” which, sources said, has an advance of more than $3 million — some $400,000 more than the marmalade-loving scamp, “Paddington.” Others claim the gap is much wider.

However, another source close to “Paddington” refuted that number and said it’s neck and neck with “Dolly” at $3 million worth of tickets sold.

Who am I to pick a fight with a bear? Even one in a red hat.

What’s so left-field about these figures is that “Paddington” is a giant hit in London — one of the hottest shows there in years — and is largely sold out through late September with just scattered seats available through the end of the year. No Broadway musical can say the same. Most are too busy crying on Zoom calls.

I saw “Paddington” last winter at the Savoy Theatre and adored it. The musical is a sweeter, poppier “Matilda” with impressive tech.

Then there’s “Dolly.” The country-music show with tunes such as “I Will Always Love You” and “Jolene” was mocked to high heaven after its out-of-town Tennessee tryout last summer. One spy told me it would be better off “in a drag bar in Vegas.” Viperous critics tellingly weren’t invited down south, and its Broadway bow was delayed.

The situation would seem to be a clear-cut hit vs. bomb, right?

Not necessarily. 

Cuddly “Paddington” is an enormous risk in NYC.

For one, according to an SEC filing, “Paddington” is capitalized at a grizzly $31 million, close to 2025’s pricey flop “Death Becomes Her.” The hit London production, a source said, was capitalized at $16.7 million.

That’s awfully expensive. 

“Barmylade!,” as one stunned wag put it.

And then there’s the brand’s strength. The children’s books by Michael Bond aren’t widely read by American kids. And their millennial parents have no nostalgia for them like the British ones I saw sobbing in their seats do. 

Recently the wonderful movie trilogy has improved the little guy’s visibility here a bit. 

Yet the last film, “Paddington in Peru,” grossed $5 million more in the UK — a nation with one fifth the population of the U.S., where it sold a modest $45.8 million of tickets.

Plus, family shows are always tough on Broadway. Our successful family fare tends to either be Disney or for everyone, like “Wicked.” Heck, parents of eight-year-olds to this day mostly ask me about how they can score seats to “Hamilton.” 

“Paddington” will need to quickly prove its appeal beyond the very young. “Frozen,” big flop, couldn’t manage that. 

Of course, “Paddington” producers Sonia Friedman and Eliza Lumley think I’m merely padding column inches. They say their show, which opens in the spring at the Al Hirschfeld, is in hibernation.

“We’re still nine months from our Broadway opening, we haven’t yet launched our campaign, nor have we announced the cast, and we’re very pleased with where we are at this stage,” they jointly said.

“‘Paddington’ followed a very similar trajectory in London. Sales accelerated dramatically once previews began — in fact, they exploded — as audiences experienced the show for themselves.”

Hmmm, they’ve certainly done a little more than blast out a press release.

In the leadup to their announcement, the production blanketed the city with teasing fliers saying “Have you seen this bear?,” in reference to a tense plot point at the end of Act One. 

And the character Paddington — who’s performed by an actress in a suit while an offstage actor operates the face and provides the kindly voice — appeared on “Good Morning America,” like a furry Matt Damon.

“Paddington” even tried to muscle in on Knicksmania this month in an Instagram video.

“Dolly,” which opens in the winter at the St. James, has done considerably less.

“A True Original,” produced by Parton and the UK’s Ambassador Theatre Group (which — the drama! — also owns Sonia Friedman Productions), announced its Broadway run with a social media video from Parton only two weeks ago and went on sale July 10.  

There’s been little marketing spend beyond that, I’m told. Parton, 80, hasn’t done any national TV interviews, and her show is selling well anyway, particularly with groups.

“Dolly”’s combined price tag for its Nashville tryout and New York productions is a hefty $30 million — including $17 million for Broadway. Like “Paddington,” it has an uphill climb.

Parton and her collaborators, sources said, are addressing the gripes from the earlier run. More of her popular songs will be in the first act, and the story won’t be as beat-to-beat biographical as before. 

That sour initial word of mouth, luckily for Dolly, doesn’t seem to have wafted far beyond the gossiping cobras of the theater industry.

“Dolly Parton is a singular figure in our culture,” said British producer Adam Speers of ATG. “There’s nobody else quite like her: her humor, her remarkable empathy and an ability to make everyone feel like they’ve known her their entire lives.”

That’s key. Every American knows Dolly in their DNA like she’s a prettier George Washington. But a lot of people will need to be properly introduced to Paddington and the Brown family for their $31 million musical to run the several years required to become a hit.

Friedman and Lumley believe their show can do just that.

“Whilst ‘Paddington’ is set in London, its themes are universal,” they said — tossing in a “st” for good measure. “At its heart it’s a story about kindness, tolerance, acceptance and finding home. Those are values that resonate everywhere.”

I completely agree. Though it wouldn’t hurt if the main character’s name was Simba!