Diabetes cases to double to 1.3B adults by 2050: experts

A new study finds that the number of people living with diabetes — especially Type 2 diabetes — will more than double in 27 years.

Health experts call the rapid rise in Type 2 diabetes cases “alarming,” referring to the chronic condition as “a defining disease of this century.”

About 529 million people worldwide were living with diabetes in 2021. The study authors estimate that number will increase to more than 1.31 billion by 2050.

If by 2050 the world’s population is 9.8 billion, as predicted by the United Nations, one of every seven or eight people will have diabetes by then.

The increase is overwhelmingly due to Type 2 diabetes cases, a preventable condition that’s linked to obesity. (Cases of Type 1 diabetes, caused by genetic factors, are expected to remain stable.)

“Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible,” wrote the authors of the study, published Thursday in the Lancet.

“However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors,” they added.

Every country in the world is expected to see a steep rise in diabetes cases. The increase will be greatest in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the study.

Type 2 diabetes brings with it an increased risk for a host of other conditions: heart disease, stroke, kidney failure, Alzheimer’s disease, nerve damage, amputations, vision problems, depression, high blood pressure, heart attacks and certain cancers.

These could stress health care systems worldwide beyond the breaking point, medical experts fear.

“Diabetes remains one of the biggest public health threats of our time and is set to grow aggressively over the coming three decades in every country, age group and sex, posing a serious challenge to health care systems worldwide,” Dr. Shivani Agarwal, of the Montefiore Health System and the Albert Einstein College of Medicine, told the Guardian.

In addition to rising rates of obesity, the growth in diabetes cases will be caused by other factors, including an aging population: People over the age of 65 are at greater risk of the disease.

“While the general public might believe Type 2 diabetes is simply associated with obesity, lack of exercise, and a poor diet, preventing and controlling it is quite complex due to a number of factors,” Dr. Liane Ong, lead study author and researcher at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, said in a statement.

“That includes someone’s genetics, as well as logistical, social and financial barriers within a country’s structural system, especially in low and middle-income countries,” she added.